Who will have to look for a trampoline?

Photo: Alexandra Gorbunova, wikipedia.org

Well, the first launch of the “Dragon” with the astronauts was postponed due to the weather, which has already generated a lot of malevolent statements on the Web.

However, you should not be so happy, Musk is a stubborn person and sooner or later everything will fly with him. As it flew before.

Another question, is it necessary to look at Musk with such a legacy as ours?

It is necessary. It is necessary at least because now Roscosmos will lose the last fattest feeding trough in the form of bringing and taking astronauts to the ISS, and from the ISS itself there is a lot that is not clear.

That is why, as soon as the smell of Falcon’s launch smelled, our chief in space, Mr. Rogozin, gave a very extensive interview to radio KP, the general message of which was: all these are little things, we can do everything ourselves.

And at the same time he said that we can.

The moon. Orbital station. Winged spaceship, heir to the Buran. Just a new spaceship. Another super-heavy rocket. In general, we can do a lot of things.

In words. As it will be in practice, this is still more difficult. Rogozin has problems with implementation in general.

I don’t even want to talk about something that will replace Soyuz, and we will not. “Federation”, which became “Eagle”, but from this not a centimeter away from the Earth, even theoretically, is such a hackneyed topic that there is no point in wasting time and letters on it.

The same is about the plastic “Argo”, which supposedly will be built. I could go in more detail on the topic, but the sound of the saw, which is constantly on the topic, distracts.

The same goes for the heavy-super-heavy rocket. There are many names, the essence is the same: there is no rocket, when it will be, it is not clear how to drag the heavily weighted Orlorastia into near-earth orbit, it is also unclear.

Winged spaceship. Or, as it was dubbed in the relevant media, “Buran-2”.

In general, the idea has already been criticized quite well, and they did it quite deservedly.

Firstly, there is really no one to build “Buran-2”. Now, of course, our patriots will start on the theme that we really “can repeat everything”, but alas. Lozino-Lozinsky, Glushko, Mikoyan, Schultz … Excuse me, but they will not repeat anything.

And modern ones … Am I wrong, or is the Science module still on Earth? As well as “Irtysh”, “Yenisei”, “Angara”, “Eagles” and other “Federations”?

Forgive me, here the assembly of launch vehicles of 50-year-old “freshness” was barely adjusted … so that they would stop sticking into the ground.

Secondly. Why do we need this spaceship with wings? To fly in the atmosphere … Well, that’s understandable. The United States abandoned the winged shuttles 10 years ago, Europe did not even think in this direction, China is also somehow bypassed.

And we, as always, that is, in spite of. Contrary to everyone and everything, including common sense.

It is customary for us to discuss Musk in the sense that everything is wrong with him. And here everything is correct. We’ll see, of course, but something tells me that his “Falcon-Dragons” will fly sooner or later. And this, excuse me, is not the ancient “Unions”. These are the ships of today.

And such a good manager, Musk, for some reason made the ships conditionally reusable, that is, partially. Moving away from a purely reusable scheme, because there is really a lot of hassle with it.

Indeed, as practice has shown, one tile was missed in the analysis, and that’s it. DNA can be collected throughout the atmosphere. So the Americans abandoned this idea. Having lost only two crews.

Why do we need to necessarily invent some kind of our own way, reworking the project of the ancient “Buran” and sculpting something more modern on its platform? A weird approach, to be honest. Very strange. Can we repeat it? A very dubious, frankly speaking, success of forty years ago? Doubtful – because the American authors abandoned it. We, having copied the idea with “Buran”, did not bring it to a normal flight, and now – again?

What for?

Why do we need a winged ship today? I think no one will answer. “Soyuz” very reliably, and most importantly, cheaply land on Earth without wings. In order to fly to the moon, where Rogozin’s aspirations are also directed, wings are not needed either. There is nothing to rely on. There is no atmosphere.

It turns out that only for landing on Earth. Which is already worked out. It is very strange and smacks of either the squeal of a saw, or just ill-conceived PR.

Indeed, the bulk of those who designed, developed and built “Buran”, unfortunately, that’s it. We have worked out our program to the end. And in our conditions, the prospect of the appearance of a second Queen or Glushko, excuse me, causes universal sadness and sadness. Because the Russian land has really become scarce with talents, we are eating up the last Soviet remnants.

On what (more precisely, on whom) Rogozin plans to carry out his grandiose projects, it is difficult to say. But so far, no particular success has been seen, apart from investigations and criminal cases.

But we can say that there are successes in drawing up plans and allocating money for these plans. Seriously, before this rather vague crisis hit, we listened monthly to stories of what was coming soon / in the not too distant future. And how much money will be spent on it.

Super-heavy rocket instead of Angara? One trillion rubles at least. The maximum is 1.7 trillion rubles for the Yenisei, which in fact is not needed by anyone, either the military or civilians, because there is no cargo for it. Yes, Rogozin talked about launching artificial satellites of the moon with the help of the Yenisei … I will not comment at all, I see no point.

Further. Global satellite communications program “Sphere”. 1.5 trillion rubles. Within the framework of this program, 638 vehicles for various purposes are supposed to be put into orbit until 2030. True, in 2019, 23 satellites of all purposes, the Aerospace Forces, Roskosmos, the Gonets system, were launched into orbit.

That is, according to the plan, 80 launches per year only on the “Sphere” (VKS and others stand separately), and now 23. Actually, everything is clear anyway. More than a hundred launches per year? Mr. Rogozin, don’t be funny …

Lunar program. Well, this is just sheer fantasizing. It was not possible to find exactly how many trillions it was supposed to request for it, but it is clear that in addition to 1.7 for a super-heavy launch vehicle, it is necessary to add more to the ship, which still does not exist, satellites, assembly in orbit, and so on. Up to 10 trillion easy and casual.

Apparently, on the wave of the oil crisis, the command “Stop!” From the Kremlin. Because toys are toys, but you also need to know when to stop. This can explain the transition to cheaper projects such as “Burana-2” and the orbital station.

Yes, it also makes sense to say a few words about the orbital station.

The fact that Russia simply will not pull the orbital station alone is clear and understandable. It is enough to look at which modules in the ISS are Russian and when they were docked. “Zarya”, with which the ISS began, is, as it were, ours, but not ours. Because it was built with American money. The rest, a residential module and two small research ones, are very modest, as it were.

Considering that on Earth we have at our “disposal” only the cooling corpse of the “Science” module, which began to be built in 1995. And the docking module “Prichal”, which was assembled back in 2014, but will remain on Earth until the “Science” is completed.

Everything. There is nothing more to brag about. A full-fledged station is very far.

And international cooperation specifically with NASA will be steadily declining inexorably. The main thing for the States now is to get off the “allied” needle. Then everything will go as Trump announced, that is, in accordance with the US national space exploration program.

And it should be understood that there is simply no place for us in this program. By definition, because the United States should be the first in everything. The proof is the Artemis program, where Japan and Australia ended up, but where they completely forgot to invite Russia.

The situation is not very pleasant, no matter what Mr. Rogozin says on this topic. We are clearly lagging behind the United States, and as the American programs, supported by the government and equipment manufacturers, develop, this lag will increase more and more.

In terms of the implementation of the programs, the Americans, of course, are great. Sawing by sawing (with this they also have order), but it goes on. At least Musk will perfect his technique. And we have exclusively throwing from “Federation” to “Eagle” and some other “Argo” dangling in the plans. That is, as usual, there are many words, it’s worth it.

And the further, the more we will be uninteresting to the United States. They themselves can do everything. The question of how much we can, I leave open, although for me it is not a mystery. We can’t.

And here there is only one option – to bow to those who are not friends with the United States in space programs. That is, to India and China. Relying on their support, you can try and build a new orbital station (although the Chinese already have their own), and make an attempt to fly to the same moon.

But here it will really be necessary to work, and not engage in populist statements. Work. Today we have a big problem with this at the highest level.

But we must be aware that the era of Russia as a space cab driver will finally collapse with the first docking of the Dragon to the ISS. And you can trolling on this topic as much as you want, everyone, from the last couch cheers-patriot to Rogozin, will have nothing to say after the docking.

And Roskosmos will lose its millions of dollars. Because all the US satellites will naturally line up for Musk’s Dragon flights. Which, by the way, takes twice as many people on board than the Soyuz.

So whoever has to look for a trampoline, the grandmother said it in two.

And in conclusion, I would like to say: one should not be engaged in sawing when building cosmodromes and developing a heap of unnecessary ships, but real work for the result. The result is exactly what we have been expecting from Roscosmos for two decades and which will be very difficult to wait.

Long-distance expeditions to asteroids and other planets are organized by any country, but not Russia. Research station flights – without us. Raids outside the solar system are not us.

Unfortunately, all that Russia can do today is build high-quality space toilets and transport astronauts from countries that can pay for it to the ISS.

Does it seem to me or is it really time to change something and move from confident statements of Mr. Rogozin to confident deeds?

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